Exit polls released at 10:00 pm local time on Tuesday showed Israel's general election in a statistical dead heat, with the opposition bloc led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot initially edging ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before major television networks moved to declare the two sides level.
The vote, Israel's first general election since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack, drew a turnout of 77.7 percent, the highest recorded since 1999, according to Yahoo News. Arab lists, which could emerge as kingmakers in coalition talks, made strong gains as the night wore on.
A referendum on security failure and political longevity
The contest is widely read as a referendum on Netanyahu's handling of the October 7 attacks, which opponents blame on his government's security failures, and on his refusal to establish an independent commission of inquiry. For Israel's longest-serving leader, political survival was the explicit stake.
Eisenkot, a political novice who leads the Yashar party, traded his usual plain black shirt for a suit and tie on election night and promised to move quickly to form a government. That will be easier said than done. Neither side appears to have secured the 61-seat majority required in the Knesset, and the arithmetic now depends on smaller parties with little history of cooperating.
“To form a new government, they'll have to break with established rules and norms and build alliances that have never existed before,” Yaheli Lifshitz, a 23-year-old student, told AFP at Eisenkot's event in Tel Aviv.
What the exit polls showed
The first polls released at 10:00 pm gave a narrow edge to the Eisenkot-led bloc, prompting cheers among supporters gathered in Tel Aviv. But as counting progressed, the picture shifted. NPR reported that the race pitted Netanyahu and his far-right coalition against Eisenkot, a center-right former chief of staff, with early exit polls lifting opposition hopes after voting closed at 10 pm.
CNN described the outcome as suggesting a rebuke for Netanyahu, with no clear winner emerging from the initial counts. NBC News likewise reported that exit polls indicated no clear winner, noting a quiet but patient mood among voters in liberal strongholds of Tel Aviv such as Florentin, where many hoped to see the end of Netanyahu's tenure.
“I feel better,” Kalanit Sharon, 37, told AFP as cheers erupted in the Tel Aviv hall packed with Eisenkot supporters.
Hostages, reserve duty and the weight of three years
The election carried the emotional freight of the Hamas attack and its aftermath. Ohad Ben Ami, a former hostage taken to Gaza by Hamas, spoke bluntly at Eisenkot's event.
“Three years ago, the government abandoned us,” he said. “An Israeli citizen should never have spent a year and a half in Hamas tunnels when deals (with Hamas) were on the table” to secure the hostages' release.
Noa Ayal, a 31-year-old soldier who said she had completed more than 360 days of reserve duty, said she had been waiting for change for a long time.
“I have a lot of hope, and if Gadi doesn't become prime minister, it will undoubtedly be very difficult,” she said.
At Likud headquarters, a long night of uncertainty
At a Jerusalem convention centre rented by Netanyahu's Likud party, supporters watched a video montage celebrating the prime minister, including hugs with US President Donald Trump and footage of military strikes from the wars he has led since the Hamas attack.
Aliza Schukerman, a 70-year-old retiree, refused to concede defeat when the first exit polls came out.
“We'll have to wait until tomorrow morning, when they've counted all the votes. It will take time,” she said. “I'm sure that by 10:00 am tomorrow we will know that we've won and that Bibi is prime minister again.”
Elie Pieprz, 53, struck a confident note, arguing that results typically move in Likud's favour as the night progresses. Asked about the possibility of an opposition victory, he called for a coalition that would still include Likud, citing the conflict with Iran and the need to maintain strong ties with Washington.
“Trying to change course in the middle of the journey is not a good idea,” he said.
Anat Margolin, a 49-year-old engineer and a regular viewer of Channel 14, an outlet supportive of Netanyahu, admitted she had mostly heard predictions pointing to a victory for her candidate rather than an opposition lead.
“We weren't hearing about that possibility,” she said.
Why this matters for Southeast Asia
For regional markets and policymakers, an Israeli election this close carries more than symbolic weight. A government led by Eisenkot would likely signal a more predictable security posture toward Iran and a less confrontational diplomatic style, factors that Gulf sovereign funds and regional trading houses watch closely when pricing risk. A Netanyahu continuation, by contrast, would extend the current trajectory of escalation and the hard security-first doctrine that has defined the past three years.
Singapore, which maintains pragmatic ties with both Israel and its Gulf partners, has a direct interest in Middle East stability given its exposure through shipping, energy procurement and financial services. Prolonged political paralysis in Jerusalem, the most likely short-term outcome if coalition talks drag on, would leave key regional security questions unanswered at precisely the moment ASEAN economies are seeking predictable energy corridors through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
The high turnout itself sends a message. Israelis turned out at levels unseen this century, and the strong showing of Arab lists complicates the traditional two-bloc arithmetic. Whatever government emerges will be built on alliances that have never existed before, as Lifshitz put it, and the markets will price that uncertainty accordingly.
FAQ
Who is Gadi Eisenkot?
Gadi Eisenkot is a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces and a political novice who leads the Yashar party. He is seeking to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
What was the voter turnout in Israel's 2026 election?
Turnout reached 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999, according to Yahoo News.
Did either side win a clear majority?
No. Exit polls shifted through the night, with major television networks eventually placing the two blocs on equal footing. Arab lists, which made strong gains, could become kingmakers.
When will final results be known?
Supporters on both sides expected clearer results by the following morning, though coalition negotiations could take considerably longer given that neither side appears to have secured a majority.